Media Release: Understanding the Drivers Behind Recent Extreme Weather in the Southern Cape

For immediate release
18 May 2026

Recent extreme weather events in the Southern Cape have raised serious concern among residents, infrastructure managers, and environmental practitioners.

GREF Convener, Cobus Meiring, requested Knysna-based climate systems expert, Peter du Toit, from FutureClimateIQ to shed some light on why the Southern Cape increasingly experience such extreme weather events.

“The region’s recent experience of intense rainfall, flooding, and an unprecedented period of gale force winds is consistent with evolving atmospheric and oceanic conditions affecting southern Africa”, says Du Toit.

Du Toit explains that the Southern Cape sits at the intersection of several dynamic weather systems. The region is influenced by mid-latitude frontal systems moving in from the South Atlantic, as well as moisture-laden air masses driven by warmer ocean temperatures. When these systems interact under unstable atmospheric conditions, they can generate highly concentrated storm events with strong wind fields and intense precipitation over short periods.

One of the key contributing factors highlighted is the increasing variability in large-scale climate drivers such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. These oscillations influence rainfall distribution and storm tracks across southern Africa, often intensifying weather extremes when atmospheric conditions align unfavourably.

The recent gale force wind event, described by local authorities as unprecedented in its sustained intensity and spatial reach, is linked to a deep low-pressure system that intensified rapidly offshore before making landfall along the Southern Cape coastline. This created a strong pressure gradient, resulting in damaging wind speeds across exposed coastal and inland areas.

Du Toit further notes that while these large-scale climate systems are natural, their behaviour is being modified by a warming global climate. Warmer sea surface temperatures increase atmospheric moisture and energy availability, which can enhance storm development and severity.

However, he cautions that climate drivers alone do not fully explain the scale of impacts experienced on the ground. Local factors such as land-use change, degraded catchments, and invasive alien vegetation significantly amplify run-off, windthrow, and infrastructure vulnerability during extreme events.

The combination of these global and local influences is making the Southern Cape increasingly susceptible to high-impact weather events, requiring improved understanding, preparedness, and long-term resilience planning.

Feature Image: Peter du Toit, from FutureClimateIQ –Photo Supplied

Written by: Garden Route Environmental Forum (GREF)

The GREF is a public platform for environmental practitioners and a climate change think tank (grefecsf.co.za).

ENDS